经济政策不确定性影响研发效率的机制及检验——基于高技术产业跨国数据的实证研究

Mechanism and Test of Economic Policy Uncertainty Affecting Research and Development Efficiency——An Empirical Study Based on Multinational Data of High-tech Industry

构建理论模型分析经济政策不确定性对高技术产业R&D投入效率的影响,并选取2003~2018年62个经济体的高技术产业面板数据,运用中介效应模型、条件分位数回归对理论假说进行实证检验。研究发现:经济政策不确定性上升会倒逼高技术产业增加R&D费用投入和R&D人力资本投入,但会抑制这两种投入的R&D效率;R&D投入作为经济政策不确定性影响高技术产业R&D效率的重要"中介",其作用的发挥受到不同经济体要素禀赋结构的约束,表现出异质性,并非对所有经济体而言都越高越好。因此,认清本国所处的要素禀赋阶段,正视R&D投入边际效率递减规律的存在,避免单纯的"R&D崇拜",逐步形成R&D人力资本投入与R&D费用投入良性互动的局面,是各国应对经济政策不确定性冲击,改革高新技术产业R&D投入产出机制、提高R&D投入效率的重要途径。

This paper built up a theoretic model to analyse the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the R&D investment efficiency of high-tech industries,and with selected panel data of high-tech industries from 2003 to 2018 from 62 economies,to empirically test the theoretical hypotheses by means of mediating effect model and conditional quantile regression. The results show that the increasing uncertainty of economic policy will force the high-tech industry to increase the input of R&D expenses and human capital,but will restrain the R&D efficiency of these two kinds of inputs. As an important"intermediary"that economic policy uncertainty affects R&D efficiency of high-tech industries,R&D input plays a role which is restricted by the factor endowment structure of different economies and shows heterogeneity,and it is not for all the economies that the higher brings the better. Therefore,it is necessary to realize the country’s status of factor endowment,seriously recognize the law of diminishing marginal efficiency of R&D input,avoiding simple "worship "of R&D. Gradually,it will form a well interaction between R&D human capital input and R&D expenses input,serving as a response to economic uncertainty,and an important path to reform the input-output mechanism of high-tech industry R&D input,and improve the efficiency.