基于时间序列模型的医院医用高值耗材需求量预测研究

Research on Demand Forecast of High-Value Medical Consumables in Hospital Based on Time Series Model

目的探讨时间序列分析方法在医院医用高值耗材需求量预测中的应用,分析和预测未来一段时间内某高值耗材的使用需求。方法采用SPSS时间序列的专家建模器对上海市某医院高值耗材中某型号吻合器2016年1月至2018年7月的逐月使用量进行数据建模和预测。结果建立的模型为时间序列简单模型,模型R2=0.317,总体相对误差为15.12%。结论时间序列简单模型能够较为准确的进行吻合器的需求预测,并将预测值加入医院物资管理系统中,根据预测值实现科学备货,为医用耗材物资的合理管控提供数据支持。

Objective To explore the application of time series analysis method in the prediction of the demand for high-value medical consumables in the hospital,and to analyze and predict the demand of high-value consumables in a period of time in the future.Methods The expert modeler based on SPSS time series was used to model and predict the monthly consumption of a type of anastomat in a hospital in Shanghai from January 2016 to July 2018.Results The established model was a simple time series model with R2=0.317 and overall relative error of 15.12%.Conclusion The simple time series model can accurately predict the demand of the anastomat,and add the predicted value into the material management system.According to the predicted value,the scientific stock preparation can be realized,which provides data support for the reasonable management and control of medical consumables.