碳减排政策与工业结构低碳升级

Carbon Abatement Policies and Low-carbon Upgrading of Industrial Structure

本文基于中国省区面板数据,针对碳减排政策与工业结构低碳升级之间的关系进行了实证检验,并进一步对政策的动态效应、政策间的协同效应与市场表现的调节效应等展开了深入分析。研究发现,第一,不同类型碳减排政策(节能目标、新能源补贴和碳市场)的影响效应呈现出一定的差异性。节能目标政策更能显著推动工业结构低碳化升级,新能源补贴效果存在区域性和滞后性,碳市场表现不显著。第二,从动态效应看,目标约束自2006年之后对工业结构低碳升级做出了较为“稳定”的贡献,且政策的倒逼效应随时间在增强。第三,从政策间协同效应来看,没有发现任何积极的协同升级结果,可见中国碳减排政策的制订主体的确存在“单打独斗”的局面,缺乏协同性考量。第四,从市场表现的调节效应来看,新能源补贴政策对更高出口依赖度地区结构升级具有显著的抑制作用,另外两种政策的结构升级效应不依赖于市场表现。最后,本文在模型设定、并发事件等方面证实了基准模型估计结果的稳健性。

Based on the given data of provinces and regions in China,this paper conducts an empirical test on the relationship between carbon abatement policies and low-carbon upgrading of industrial structure,and further analyzes the dynamic effect of the policies,the synergy effect among policies and the regulatory effect of market performance.The results show that,first,the impact of different policies shows certain differences:policy focusing on energy-saving goal can significantly promote the low-carbon upgrading of industrial structure,while policy centering on new energy subsidies have regional limitation and time lag,and performs badly in the carbon market.Second,in terms of dynamic effect,the restrictive goal has made relatively“steady”contribution to the low-carbon upgrading of industrial structure since 2006,and the reversal effect of the policies strengthens over time.Third,from the perspective of the the synergy effect among policies,there are not any positive results of synergetic upgradation,which reflects that the decision-makers of carbon abatement policies work independently and lack collaboration with each other.Fourth,from the viewpoint of the moderating effect of market performance,the policy of new energy subsidy significantly inhibits the structural upgrading in regions highly relying on export,while the impact of the other policies does not depend on market performance.Finally,the robustness of estimated results in the benchmark model is verified in the aspects in terms of model setting,concurrent events and the introduction of pollution control policies.