基于ARIMAX模型的水泥稳定碎石基层温度预测方法

Prediction Methods of Cement Stabilized Crushed Stone Base Temperature Based on the ARIMAX Model

水泥稳定碎石基层路用性能受养护温度影响较大,而基层实际养护温度与大气温度、地表温度等因素密切相关。在实际工程中,利用大气温度、地表温度对基层施工后的养护温度进行预测具有一定的现实意义。文中以地表温度与大气温度为自变量,基层温度为因变量,依据AIC和SC准则,借助Eviews9软件对每个自变量建立了ARMA预测模型,在此基础上采用最小二乘拟合参数建立了用于预测基层温度的ARIMAX模型。最后基于实际数据和预测数据借助相对误差百分比检验后,证明该模型拟合良好,预测准确度高。

The pavement performance of cement stabilized gravel base is greatly affected by the curing temperature,while the actual curing temperature of base is closely related to the atmospheric temperature,surface temperature and other factors.In practical engineering,it is of practical significance to predict the curing temperature after the base course construction by using atmospheric temperature and surface temperature.In this paper,surface temperature and atmospheric temperature are taken as independent variables,and base temperature is taken as dependent variable.According to AIC and SC criteria,ARMA prediction model is established for each independent variable with the help of Eviews9 software.On this basis,ARIMAX model for base temperature prediction is established with the least squares fitting parameters.Finally,based on the actual data and the prediction data,the relative error percentage test proves that the model fits well and the prediction accuracy is high.