工资上升与出口贸易的关系研究——基于长三角城市面板数据实证分析

A Study on the Relationship between Pay Rise and Export Trade:Empirical Analysis based on the Panel Data of the Cities inYangtze River Delta

建立在2000—2018年长三角地区41个城市面板数据基础上的固定效应模型实证分析表明,静态方面长三角地区工资上升总体促进了出口贸易。动态方面工资与出口额呈现非线性“U型”关系,且总体处于“U型”的后半段,即已经基本越过拐点。通过分地区对平均工资和社会劳动生产率进行描述性统计发现,上海、江苏、浙江三地工资与出口额呈正向关系,处于“U型”后半段;安徽的工资与出口额呈负向关系,处于“U型”前半段。

Based on the panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2018,the empirical analysis of the fixed effect model shows that,from a static point of view,the pay rise in the Yangtze River Delta has promoted the export trade as a whole.From the dynamic point of view,the relationship between pays and exports presents a non-linear"U-shaped"relationship,and is generally in the second half of the"U shape",which means it has basically crossed the inflection point.Through descriptive statistics analysis of average pays and social labor productivity in different regions,it is found that there is a positive relationship between pays and exports in Shanghai,Jiangsu and Zhejiang,which are in the second half of the"U shape",while Anhui's pays and exports are negatively correlated,which are in the first half of the"U shape".