基于DPSIR模型的杭州市大气评价指标设计及其分析

Design and Analysis of the Urban Atmospheric Evaluation Indices for Hangzhou Based on DPSIR Model

在对杭州市现状调查的基础上,参考杭州市统计年鉴、中国环境统计年鉴、相关政府网站统计数据以及专家估值,根据DPSIR模型建立了目标层、要素层和指标层3级城市大气指标体系。采用改进的层次分析方法确定各级指标的权重,计算出DPSIR各因子指数,对杭州市大气指标进行评价分析,指出了构建的指标模型存在的3点不足之处。分析结果表明,各因子之间有很强的因果关系,机动车尾气排放已经成为杭州大气首要污染来源;杭州市的大气环境压力逐年减少,但是由于污染排放基数较大,近年来有回返之势。

According to the DPSIR(driving forces-pressures-state-im pacts-responses)model combined with the IAHP(improved analytic hierarchy process),an index system for evaluating urban atmosphere has been established based on an investigation of the current situation in Hangzhou City whilst referring to the Hangzhou statistical yearbooks,China environmental statistical yearbooks,statistic data available in relevant governmental websites,and experts’estimations.Having assessed and analysed the atmospheric indices,three shortcomings in the established index model was pointed out.It indicated that there were strong causalities among individual factors,and motorised vehicle exhaust emissions have become the primary source of atmospheric pollution in Hangzhou.Though atmospheric stress in Hangzhou is alleviating year by year,however,it would still have a reverse trend in recent years as the pollutant emission has had a rather high baseline.