高学历社会必然少生吗?——教育对生育水平降低的解释

Is It Necessary to Have Fewer Births in a Highly Educated Society?--Explanation of Education to the Decline of Fertility Level

教育因素对生育水平的影响历来备受关注,且颇具争议。研究采用1998—2017年31个省(市)的面板数据,构建面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,解析教育因素对生育水平变动的影响。研究发现:全社会受教育程度的提高并非必然造成生育水平的降低,反而在一定程度上有助于生育水平的提升;但"军备竞赛"式教育投资导致的家庭收入泡沫化会显著压低生育水平。研究认为,高学历社会并非必然具有低生育特征,推动优质教育资源的相对均衡配置是建立生育友好型社会的有效途径。

The influence of educational factors on fertility level has always been concerned and controversial.Based on the 31 provincial panel data from 1998 to 2017 in China,the study has analyzed the influence of educational factors on the change of fertility level by constructing a panel vector autoregressive(PVAR)model.It is found that the improvement of the education level of the whole society does not necessarily lead to the decrease of the fertility level,but contribute to the improvement of the fertility level to a certain extent.The bubble of family income caused by the"arms race"type of educational investment depresses the fertility level.The research shows it is not that the society with high academic qualifications is bound to have the characteristics of low fertility,and improving the balanced allocation of high-quality educational resources is one of the important links to promote the establishment of a fertility-friendly society.