新冠疫情下新一轮欧债危机爆发风险评估及对中欧经贸影响

The Risk Review on a New Round of Euro-Zone Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impacts on China-EU Economic and Trade Cooperation

受新冠肺炎疫情影响,欧洲各国经济遭遇严重冲击,欧盟陷入历史上最严重的经济衰退,关于欧债危机是否会再度爆发的猜测甚嚣尘上。本文认为,与欧债危机时相比,当前欧盟各国的利率、通货膨胀、政策环境等已经发生较大变化,欧盟采取的应对疫情救助措施及时,欧元区及成员国的抗风险能力显著提高,新一轮债务危机大概率不会发生,但存在发生危机的潜在风险。欧盟是我国重要的经贸合作伙伴,在当前保护主义、单边主义日益盛行的大背景下,中欧经贸关系重要性显著上升。我国需密切关注新冠肺炎疫情对欧洲经济的影响及后续复苏状况,加强宏观经济协调,确保中欧产业链供应链稳定,推进中欧投资协定谈判年内结束,为欧盟积极参与我国"双循环"新发展格局建设创造条件。

As a result of the impact exerted by COVID-19 pandemic,European economies have come under huge shocks,the EU is mired in the most serious economic recession in its history,and there is mounting speculation about whether the Euro-zone sovereign debt crisis would erupt once again.This paper argues that,as compared with the period of the Euro-zone sovereign debt crisis,major changes have occurred in terms of such factors as interest rates,inflationary pressures and policy environments;the EU has adopted timely rescue measures in response to the pandemic;and members of the Euro-zone and the EU as a whole have significantly enhanced their capabilities of risk prevention and mitigation.A new round of debt crisis is most probably not going to erupt,although there are still potential risks of such a debt crisis.The EU is a major economic and trading partner of China.Against the background of increased protectionism and unilateralism across the world,the China-EU economic and trade relationship is significantly gaining in importance.It is,therefore,imperative for China to closely monitor the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the European economy and the ensuing recovery process,strengthen macroeconomic coordination,ensure the stability of the supply chain between China and the EU,promote the end of the BIT negotiation by this year with a view to creating conditions for the EU to actively participate in China's dual circulation.