基于生命周期理论的内贸班轮企业风险识别

Risk identification of domestic trade liner enterprises based on life cycle theory

为全面分析内贸班轮企业在不同发展阶段面临的内外部风险,对内贸班轮企业所处的生命周期阶段进行判定,并对该阶段存在的主要风险进行分析。基于生命周期理论从产业和企业双维视角对内贸班轮产业和内贸班轮企业的风险特征进行分析,并利用Logistic曲线模型和综合指标法分别对内贸班轮产业和内贸班轮企业进行生命周期阶段划分。结果表明:内贸班轮产业和大部分内贸班轮企业正处于成熟期阶段,该阶段主要存在产业环境风险、产业竞争风险、企业信用风险和企业管理风险。

In order to comprehensively analyze the internal and external risks faced by domestic trade liner enterprises in different stages of development,the life cycle stage of domestic trade liner enterprises is judged,and the main risks in this stage are analyzed.Based on the life cycle theory,the risk characteristics of the domestic trade liner industry and the domestic trade liner enterprises are analyzed from the perspective of industry and enterprises.The Logistic curve model and the comprehensive index method are used to divide the life cycle stages of the domestic trade liner industry and the domestic trade liner enterprises,respectively.The results show that:the domestic trade liner industry and most of the domestic trade liner enterprises are in the mature stage;in this stage,there are mainly four risks including the industry environment risk,the industry competition risk,the enterprise credit risk and the enterprise management risk.