城市规模、创新能力与空间溢出效应——以长江三角洲城市群为例

City Size,Innovation Ability and Spatial Spillover Effect:A Case Study of Urban Agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta of China

以创新驱动经济增长,激发城市活力和竞争力,是实现经济高质量发展的关键。运用动态面板模型和空间面板模型,以2005—2017年长三角城市群地级及以上城市为研究对象,从人口、空间、经济三个维度探讨了城市规模对创新能力及其空间溢出效应的影响和作用机理。结果表明:城市创新能力存在明显的空间溢出效应,且相关性随时间逐渐增强;城市创新能力的空间分布特征分化明显,呈现以上海为中心的高-高集聚和城市群北部低-低集聚;人口规模与创新能力存在“倒U型”关系,与创新能力的空间溢出效应具有显著负相关关系;人力资本结构与城市创新能力在人口规模的调节效应下显著正相关;经济规模和空间规模的增加能够显著提升城市创新能力,但对于空间溢出效应的影响并不显著。

Driving economic growth through innovation and stimulating the vitality and competitiveness of cities are the key to achieve high-quality economic development.Using the dynamic panel model and spatial panel model,this paper studies the effects and affecting path of city size on innovation ability and the spillover effect from the aspect of population,space and economy in Yangtze River Delta from 2005 to 2017.The results show that there is an obvious spatial spillover effect in urban innovation capacity,and the correlation increases with time;the spatial distribution characteristics of innovation capability have distinct differentiation,showing the characteristics of H-H agglomeration centered around Shanghai and L-L city agglomeration to the north of Shanghai;there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between population scale and innovation capability,and a significant negative correlation between population scale and spatial spillover effect of innovation capability;human capital structure and urban innovation capability are positively correlated under the population scale regulation effect;the increase of economic scale and spatial scale can significantly improve urban innovation capability,but the impact on spatial spillover effect is not significant.