机动车-行人事故中行人伤害严重程度分析

Analysis on injury severity of pedestrian in motor vehicle-pedestrian accidents

为探究影响机动车-行人碰撞事故中行人伤害严重程度的因素,以某市的6101起机动车-行人交通事故为研究对象,从人、车辆、道路和环境4个方面选择19个变量,采用部分优势比模型建立行人伤害严重程度分析模型,通过弹性分析法定量分析各显著变量对行人受伤情况的影响程度。结果表明:驾驶员性别与年龄、行人性别与年龄、车辆类型、路面结构、道路类型、事故发生时间、交通信号控制、能见度、照明情况以及地形等12个变量会显著影响机动车-行人碰撞事故中行人的伤害严重程度。其中,驾驶员性别与年龄等变量满足比例优势假设,而路面结构等变量不满足比例优势假设。

In order to explore factors affecting pedestrian’s injury severity in motor vehicle-pedestrian crashes,6101 cases of such crash accidents in a city were investigated.19 variables were selected from four aspects,including human,vehicles,roads and environmental conditions,and a pedestrian injury severity analysis model was established by using partial proportion odds model.Then,influence of significant variables on injury severity was analyzed quantitatively through elasticity analysis.The results show that 12 variables have a significant impact on pedestrian’s injury severity in these crashes,including drivers’gender and age,pedestrian’s gender and age,vehicle types,pavement structure,road types,time of accident,whether there is a traffic signal control,visibility,lighting conditions and terrain.Among them,variables like drivers’gender and age meet the proportional odds assumption,while those like pavement structure do not.