新源—库尔勒地区Ms≥4.0地震平静异常研究

STUDY ON Ms≥4.0 EARTHQUAKE QUIESCENCE ANOMALY IN XINYUAN-KORLA AREA

2020年1月16日发生库车MS5.6地震,对震前新源-库尔勒地区MS≥4.0地震平静异常进行回溯分析,获取其异常指标。结果表明:①新源-库尔勒地区MS≥4.0地震平静区平静时长阈值为400 d,则构成异常。②新源-库尔勒地区MS≥4.0平静异常与平静区及外围50 km范围内MS≥5.0地震之间存在一定的相关性,且中强地震绝大多数发生在异常结束后半年内。③目标地震震级与平静区平静时长未呈现正相关,同时外围MS≥4.0地震活动增强区域对目标地震地点无指示意义。

Kuche MS5.6 earthquake occurred on January 16 th,2020, we traced back MS≥4.0 earthquake quiescence in Xinyuan-korla area and obtained its anomaly index. The results showed that:① if quiescence threshold of MS≥4.0 earthquakes quiescence in Xinyuan-Korla area was 400 d, anomaly formed.② There was a certain correlation between quiescence anomaly of MS≥4.0 in Xinyuan Korla area and MS≥5.0 earthquake quiescence around 50 km area, and most of the moderate strong earthquakes occurred within half a year after the end of the anomalies.③ There is no positive correlation between the magnitude of the target earthquake and the quiescence period of the quiescence area. Meanwhile, the peripheral MS≥4.0 seismic enhancement area has no indication of the target earthquake location.