全民基本收入成本与中国政府财政能力——基于马丁法贫困测量的实证研究

The Cost of Universal Basic Income and the Financial Capacity of the Chinese Government:An Empirical Study Based on Martin Poverty Measurement

在全球多层次社会保障体系改革与发展过程中,具有定期、普遍、无条件等特征的针对个人的现金转移政策引起了理论界和实务界的关注。本文采用中国家庭金融调查数据,以马丁法测算的食品贫困线和综合贫困线为情境,在保持税收中性前提下测算与评估我国实施全民基本收入的可行性。研究发现:(1)基于食品贫困线的发放标准,3种方案下全民基本收入成本占GDP的比重分别为8.8%、6.07%、4.72%;(2)基于综合贫困线的发放标准,3种方案下全民基本收入成本占GDP的比重分别为15.01%、10.6%、8.23%;(3)在税收中性条件下,通过替代已有社会保障项目、经济增长、税收调整等3种渠道筹集的资金,即使是最低成本的食品贫困线标准下方案3,也仅能最多覆盖政策成本的40.47%,全民基本收入政策在中短期内不具有可行性;(4)河南、甘肃、青海等人口多或经济欠发达地区,全民基本收入政策成本超过了地方财政能力,需要中央政府进行财政统筹。全民基本收入是一项能深度影响社会发展的系统工程,中国需要在研究和宣传基础上,进行大量试验,加强中央统筹,根据经济发展状况,拓展政策筹资渠道,审慎推进政策落地。

In reforming and developing multilayered social security systems worldwide, the regular, universal and unconditional cash transfers for individuals have drawn the attention of both researchers and policy makers. This paper uses the data from the China Household Finance Survey, as well as the food poverty line and the comprehensive poverty line calculated by the Martin Method, to estimate the cost of China’s UBI policy and the fiscal capacity, in order to evaluate the feasibility of implementing UBI under the condition of maintaining tax neutrality in China. The study found that:(1) calculated with the food poverty line, the ratios of the UBI policy cost to GDP in the three scenarios are 8.80%, 6.07% and 4.72%, respectively;(2) calculated with the comprehensive poverty line, the ratios of the UBI policy cost to GDP in the three scenarios are 15.01%, 10.60% and 8.23%, respectively;(3) under the condition of tax neutrality, and in the lowest-cost scenario 3 calculated with the food poverty line, the funds collected by the replacement of the existing welfare policy, economic growth and tax adjustment can merely cover 40.47 percent of the policy cost, indicating that the UBI policy is not feasible in the short and medium term;and(4) for the underdeveloped regions or those with large populations, such as Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Gansu, and Qinghai, the cost of the UBI policy exceeds the local financial capacity and thus needs the central government’s transfer payments. The UBI is a systematic program which can have a profound impact on social development. It requires extensive pilots based on research and publicity, as well as the central government’s engagement and growing sources of financing.