摘要
本文基于中国老龄健康长寿追踪调查2008—2014年3期追踪数据,利用生存分析方法,研究失能老人长期照料未满足的需求对其死亡风险的影响,为如何规避失能老人健康衰退的决策提供证据。研究表明:我国失能老人长期照料未满足的需求具有一定的普遍性,约有56.28%的失能老人报告具有未满足的需求;具有未满足需求的失能老人的累积生存时间低于照料需求完全满足的失能老人;Cox分析结果进一步显示,未满足的需求对失能老人的死亡风险具有显著的负向影响,在控制其他变量的条件下,报告有未满足需求的失能老人的死亡风险比照料需求完全满足的失能老人高出约7.8个百分点。推动长期照料政策理念“从获得到满足”的转向,重视失能老人长期照料需求的满足状况,应成为降低失能老人死亡风险的政策选择。
Based on the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS) data(2008-2014), this research investigates the impact of unmet long-term care needs on the risk of death of the disabled elderly by using the methods of survival analysis, and provides evidence for policy decisions regarding the prevention of the disabled elderly’s health decline. The results show that:(1) the unmet needs of long-term care for the disabled elderly are common to some extent, with about 56.28 percent of the disabled elderly being reported to have unmet needs;(2) the cumulative survival time of the disabled elderly with unmet needs is shorter than that of the disabled elderly whose needs of care are fully met;(3) Cox analysis further shows that the unmet needs significantly increase the mortality risk of the disabled elderly. When the other variables are held constant, the mortality risk of the disabled elderly who reported unmet needs is about 7.8 percentage points higher than that of the disabled elderly whose care needs were fully met. In order to reduce the mortality risk of the disabled elderly, a wise policy is to promote the shift of the long-term care policy from "providing access" to "adequate benefits" and attach importance to the satisfaction of the long-term care needs.
作者
陈宁
Chen Ning(School of Politics and Public Administration,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)
出处
《社会保障评论》
CSSCI
2020年第4期133-145,共13页
Chinese Social Security Review
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“全面二孩背景下妇女生育率的群体差异与政策供给精准化研究”(20CRK023)。
关键词
失能老人
长期照料
未满足的需求
死亡风险
the elderly with disabilities
long-term care
unmet needs
mortality risk