基于后悔理论和COPRAS的概率语言FMEA风险评估方法

Probabilistic Linguistic FMEA Risk Evaluabion Method Based on Regret Theory and COPRAS

针对传统故障模式和影响分析(FMEA)方法存在容易造成专家风险评估信息的丢失、忽略专家有限理性行为和风险指标之间的相对重要性等问题,提出了一种基于后悔理论和复杂比例评估(COPRAS)方法的概率语言FMEA风险评估方法.首先采用概率语言术语集(PLTS)描述专家风险评估信息的不确定性和模糊性;然后运用概率语言连乘层次分析法(PL-MAHP)和最大偏差法相结合的综合赋权法获得风险因子综合权重;其次考虑到风险评估过程中专家的心理特征行为,利用后悔理论和COPRAS方法确定故障模式风险优先序;最后通过砂轮架故障风险评估案例来验证该方法的适用性和有效性.灵敏度和对比分析结果表明:相比于现有其他方法,该方法得到的故障模式风险排序结果更合理可靠.

With respect to several drawbacks such as easily causing the loss of experts'risk assessment information,overlooking the failure mode and effect analysis(FMEA)team member's bounded rational behaviors and the relative importance among risk factors in traditional FMEA method.a probabilistic linguistic FMEA risk evaluation method based on regret theory and Complex Proportional Assessment(COPRAS)method was proposed.Firstly,the probabilistic linguistic term sets(PLTS)was used to characterize the ambiguity and uncertainty of experts risk assessment information;Secondly,the risk factor weights were determined by using comprehensive weighting method based on the probabilistic linguistic multiplicative Analytic Hierarchy Process(PL-MAHP)and the maximum deviation method;Thirdly,taking experts′psychological behaviors into account,regret theory and COPRAS were adopted to prioritize failure modes.Finally,an empirical case concerning the risk evaluation of the grinding wheel frame was presented to demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method.Results derived from comparative and sensitivity analyses fully show that the risk priority ranking order determined by the proposed FMEA method is shown to be more rational and reliable by comparing with other existing methods.