财务困境预警:概念界定与理论辨析

Financial Distress:Theoretical Definition and Analysis

财务困境预警问题已被理论界和实践界长期研究,但预警模型的准确率一直没有明显提高。一个重要的原因是对财务困境的概念、发展演变过程缺乏较为科学的解释,导致不同学者从不同角度出发建立了不同的模型。本文将财务困境问题界定为一个从资金紧张、财务危机、债务违约到经营失败的动态发展演变过程,并将财务困境问题最终归结在不同发展阶段企业的资金供求平衡问题。基于这一基本概念和理论分析,可以建立定量计算的、可验证的财务困境预警模型。这一模型因其具有准确计算特征而会使预警准确性提高。

The early warning of financial distress has been studied for a long time by the theoretical and practical circles,but the accuracy rate of the early warning model has not been significantly improved.One of the important reasons is that there is no scientific explanation for the concept and evolution of financial distress,which leads different scholars to establish different models from different angles.In this paper,financial distress is defined as a dynamic evolution process from capital shortage,financial crisis,debt default to business failure,and the problem of financial distress is ultimately attributed to the balance of capital supply and the demand of enterprises at different stages of development.Based on this basic concept and theoretical analysis,we can establish a quantitative calculation and verifiable financial distress warning model.