北极西北航道海洋风能选址建模与评估

MODELING AND EVALUATION OF OCEAN WIND ENERGY LOCATIONS IN THE ARCTIC NORTHWEST PASSAGE

风能开发价值度等级区划是风能发电、能源基地等工程选址的主要依据。针对北极西北航道海上风能选址的困境,建立了一套具有极区特色的风能开发价值度等级评估体系,并结合基于三角模糊数随机模拟的综合评估模型(CA-SSTFN)展开分析。通过该模型与层次分析法和模糊层次分析法评估技术的对比试验结果来看,CA-SSTFN能够客观地实现多源环境信息的融合和推理,而且以置信区间形式表示的评估结果比现有常规方法的结果提供了评价结果可靠性方面的更多信息,评价结果更符合实际情况,具有良好的评估性能,同时该模型还具有基于信息检测的更新能力,基于此可实现价值度的实时或准实时评估。最后以阿蒙森湾中部海域进行实例分析:从结果来看该海域风能开发价值整体较高,特别是夏季,而夏季也是当前西北航道的最佳通行期,更添风能开发的价值。综合来看,推荐的开发先导点为:(124°W,70.5°N)。

The grade division of wind energy development is the main basis of site selection for wind power generation.To address the problem of offshore wind energy location in the Arctic Northwest Passage,a set of evaluation systems of wind energy development grades with polar region characteristics was established,which was analyzed by combining with a comprehensive evaluation model(CA-SSTFN)based on triangular fuzzy number stochastic simulation.According to the comparison test results between the model and the evaluation technologies of analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and fuzzy AHP,CA-SSTFN can objectively realize the fusion and reasoning of multi-source environmental information,and the evaluation results expressed in the form of confidence intervals provide more information on the reliability of the evaluation results than do the results of existing conventional methods.The evaluation results are more consistent with the actual situation and have good evaluation performance.At the same time,the model also has updating capability based on information detection,which can realize real-time or quasi-real-time evaluation of value.Finally,the central sea area of Amundsen Bay was taken as an example for analysis.The results indicate that the value of wind energy development in this sea area is generally good,especially in summer,which is also the best passage period for the current Northwest Passage,adding value to wind energy development.Overall,the recommended development pilot area is in the region of 70.5°N,124°W.