新冠疫情下俄罗斯经济重启的制约因素及前景分析

Analysis of Restraints and Prospects for Relaunching Russian Economy inCovid-19 Pandemic

新冠疫情导致的经济停顿给俄罗斯社会带来巨大冲击。疫情最严重的第二季度,GDP增速同比-8.5%。7月份完成修宪程序之后,普京新颁布的"七月法令"放弃了2018年"五月总统令"确定的成为世界第五大经济体等国家发展目标,基于国家项目确定的"突破性增长"和"投资新周期"任务被迫搁置。这些都意味着俄罗斯政府把经济重启看作是一项长期、复杂的过程。在疫情不确定的条件下,抗疫反危机的财政压力分散了重启经济的金融资源。财政资源匮乏,投资萎靡不振,消费停滞不前,是经济重启的主要内部障碍。从外部因素看,全球疫情长期化背景下世界经济陷入衰退,导致能源及大宗商品行情持续低迷,美国主导的对俄制裁仍没有结束的迹象。这将使高度依赖石油美元收入和外部金融资源的俄罗斯经济面临严峻的外部环境。俄罗斯主导的地区经济一体化难以为经济重启提供足够的支持。俄罗斯经济增长面临长期停滞的风险。

The current novel coronavirus outbreak brings heavy impact on Russian economy,making Russia’s GDP increase rate reach-8.5%on year-on-year basis.Considering all the influences regarding the pandemic,Putin,president of Russia,delays the actualization of certain economic objectives,implying that Russian government views relaunching the Russian economy as a long-term arduous task.In uncertainties caused by the virus,a great many financial resources go to the prevention and control of Covid-19 outbreak,thus making the relaunching become a difficult and complicate process.In detail,there exist obstacles of various types including the internal ones and external ones,and never-ending sanctions imposed by some countries led by the US,resulting in the dilemma for the relaunching of Russian economy.In addition,it’s hard to seek supports for Russia’s economic restart due to the integrated development of its regional economy,throwing its economic increase at a serious risk of being stalled.