京津冀环境不平等的成因分析——基于Shapley值分解方法

Causes of environmental inequality in Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region:A analysis based on Shapley value decomposition method

研究利用基尼系数等不平等指标刻画了京津冀环境不平等的演变趋势,并使用基于回归的Shapley值分解方法对京津冀环境不平等的成因进行了分析。研究发现:(1)近年来,京津冀地区之间的环境不平等问题愈加严重,其中北京获取了较多的环境收益,河北承担了较多的污染;(2)产业结构是造成京津冀环境不平等的最主要原因,其次是经济发展水平,而城镇化水平、环境规制水平和对外开放程度等因素的影响相对较小。应当促进河北的产业结构升级和转型,同时控制地区间的污染产业转移以及缩小经济发展差距,从而实现京津冀地区之间的环境平等和协调发展。

The inequality indicators such as Gini coefficient were applied to describe the evolvement trend of environmental inequality in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and the regression-based Shapley value decomposition method was introduced to analyze the causes of environmental inequality in this region.This study concluded:(1)In recent years,the problems led by environmental inequality between Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei have been becoming more serious than ever,concretely more environmental benefits in Beijing and increased pollution in Hebei are observed.(2)Industrial structure difference is the most important reason behind the phenomenon of environmental inequality in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and the second important factor is economic development level,compared with other relatively minor impact factors such as urbanization level,environmental regulation and foreign opening degree.Thus,it is necessary to promote the upgradation and the transformation of the industrial structure in Hebei,meanwhile the polluted industry transfer from other regions must be controlled and the regional economic development gap must be reduced to achieve the environmental equality and coordinated development between Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.