新冠肺炎疫情对全球能源产业链影响的“四阶段” 模型分析及应对

Analysis and Suggestions of “Four Stages” Model of COVID-19's Impact on Global Energy Indu strial Chain

2020年新冠肺炎疫情对全球经济及能源产业链产生了巨大的影响。本文通过与其他全球性能源危机进行比较,发现了此次疫情危机的“突发性”、“全面性”以及“双向性”等独有特点,并对疫情前后全球能源大国的能源产业链发展趋势进行汇总分析,提出疫情冲击下能源产业链的“四阶段”模型,认为能源产业链均会经历“突发期”、“应对期”、“报复回升期”以及“缓和期”4个阶段后恢复至正常水平,最后从“四阶段”出发,对疫后能源产业的恢复以及风险防范提出相应的政策建议。

In 2020,the COVID-19 had a huge impact on the global economy and energy industrial chain.Comparing with other global energy crises,the aim of this paper is finding out the unique char acteristics of the epidemic and summarize the regular pattern of the development of energy in dustrial chain.It is found that COVID-19 has“unexpectedness”,“comprehensiv eness”and“two-way”characteristics,then summarizes the development trend of energy industrial chain in energy leading powers during the epidemic.Also,this paper uses the method of data summary and analysis to put forward a four-stage model of energy industrial chain under the impact of the epidemic that the energy industry will experience“burst”,“response”,“retaliatory rebound”,“easing up”four periods and finally return to normal.Finally,on the basis of the four-stages model,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions for the recovery and risk prevention of the energy industry a fter the epidemic.