移动支付影响货币政策传导的有效性吗?—基于TVP-VAR模型的实证分析

Dose Moile Payment Affect the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission?——Empirical Analysis Based on TVP-VAR Model

本文在理论分析的基础上,通过构建VAR模型和TVP-VAR模型,发现移动支付业务规模与货币乘数、货币流通速度成正相关,并提高居民、企业和银行部门的利率弹性,同时通过改变货币的需求和供给,影响货币政策传导的有效性。本文认为移动支付会提高货币流通速度,提升资产流动性,并将挑战传统中央银行货币理论体系,降低数量型货币政策的有效性。由此,本文建议加强对移动支付的监管机制,重新审视货币理论框架,推动货币政策逐步从数量型向价格型调控转型。

Mobile payment affects the monetary policy transmission by affecting the currency multiplier and circulation speed.By constructing a VAR model,this paper verifies that mobile payment scale is positively correlated with currency multiplier and currency circulation speed;and through the TVP-VAR model,it is verified that mobile payment will lead to a reduction in the transmission efficiency of monetary policy.This paper concludes that mobile payments will amplify the multiplier effect of currency,increase the speed of currency circulation,and challenge the traditional central bank monetary theory system,reducing the effectiveness of quantitative monetary policies.Therefore,this paper proposes to re-examine the monetary theoretical framework,promote the gradual transformation of monetary policy from quantitative to price-based regulation,and improve the supervision mechanism for mobile payments.