石油美元环流演变、新能源金融发展与人民币国际化研究

Research on the Evolution of Petrodollar Circulation, New Energy Finance Development and RMB Internationalization

石油是全球重要的战略能源,石油美元发展策略是助力美元国际化快速发展的重要力量之一。随着全球能源格局的变迁,当今石油美元呈现出新特点。第一,石油供求变化对石油美元产生重要影响。第二,石油美元环流出现“东”流、投资渠道多元化以及规模减小的新变化。第三,美元指数与石油价格呈脱钩趋势。同时,新能源和低碳经济开始进入人们的视线,低碳发展已经迫在眉睫。在传统能源作为主导、新能源快速发展的形势下,我国要合理利用自身巨大的能源需求,探索出一条针对不同能源类型的“二元路径”。一方面,争取传统能源结算领域更大话语权;另一方面,布局推广新能源金融,设计、推广并使用“新能源-人民币”。这既是保障我国能源安全的要求,也是推动人民币国际化的重要契机。

Petroleum is an important strategic energy source in the world, and the development strategy of petrodollar is one of the important forces to assist the rapid development of internationalization of the dollar countries. By virtue of its huge oil demand and strong military strength, the United States reached an“unshakable agreement”with Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer of OPEC Group. The US dollar mechanism has increased the influence of the pricing of petrodollar and strengthened the status of petrodollar. However, with the changes in the global energy landscape, petrodollar today are taking on new features. Firstly, changes in oil supply and demand have an important impact on petrodollar. Secondly, there are new changes in the flow of petrodollar towards the East, diversification of investment channels, and a decrease in scale. Thirdly, the dollar index is decoupling from oil prices. At the same time, another significant feature of the change in the global energy landscape is that new energy and low-carbon economies have begun to enter into people's sight, and low-carbon development is imminent. Against the background that traditional energy is dominant and new energy is developing rapidly, China must rationally use its huge energy demand and explore a“dual path”for different energy types. On the one hand, in the short term, the petroleum renminbi cannot shake the original system, but it can use huge oil demand as an entry point to fight for a greater say in traditional energy settlement. Efforts could be made to seekleading power, promote green financial standards, improve financial markets with“new energy-renminbi”as the core, and promote new energy finance in countries along the“Belt and Road”,etc. The development and promotion of new energy finance, as well as the use of“new energy-RMB”may not only guarantee China's energy security, but also present an important opportunity to promote RMB internationalization.