通货膨胀预期、资源重配与创新抑制

Research on Inflation Expectation,Resource Reallocation and Innovation Inhibition

本文采用央行储户调查报告中未来物价预期指数、简单菲利普斯曲线方法和随机游走模型计算预期通货膨胀率,考察了通货膨胀预期对企业研发创新活动的影响及其内在机理。实证结果表明,高通货膨胀预期导致企业创新投入下降,且相比于民营企业,对国有企业的创新活动的负面影响更小。无论是使用高新技术行业子样本、剔除经济刺激年份、替换研发创新衡量指标或采用面板固定效应模型,均不影响结论的稳健性。对影响渠道的检验显示,高通货膨胀预期加大了企业在未来面临融资约束的可能性及市场竞争压力,对研发创新投入产生资源挤占效应。本文的贡献在于,揭示出宏观层面的通货膨胀预期上升会通过影响企业内部的资源配置对企业的研发创新活动产生抑制作用,为优化我国货币政策调控以更好促进创新提供了参考。

Innovation is an important source for firms to maintain long-term competitive advantages.However,firms are faced with great uncertainties when carrying out innovation activities,especially the uncertainty of economic environment,which affects their external financing.Inflation expectation is an important macro variable,and the central bank often guides market expectation and achieves price stability through appropriate inflation expectation management.Since firms usually formulate development strategies and business plans based on prior forecasts of the macroeconomic situation,studying the impact of inflation expectation on firms'R&D and innovation decisions is of important theoretical and practical significance.This paper uses the Price Expectation Index in the depositor survey conducted by People's Bank of China,the simple Phillips curve model and the random walk model to calculate the expected inflation.The results show that high inflation expectation leads to the decrease of firms'innovation input,and the impact on innovation is smaller among state-owned enterprises.The robustness of the conclusions is not affected by the use of sub-samples of high-tech industries,the exclusion of economic stimulus years,the replacement of R&D innovation measures or the adoption of the panel fixed effect model.The mechanism test results show that high inflation expectation increases the possibility of financial constraints and competitive pressure in the future,and then generate crowding-out effect on R&D.The contribution of this paper is to reveal that the heightening inflation expectation at the macro-economic level will inhibit the R&D of firms by affecting the allocation of resources within firms,which provides reference for optimizing China's monetary policy regulation to better promote innovation.