贸易开放是否降低人民币实际有效汇率波动——基于省级贸易及价格水平数据的实证研究

Does Trade Openness Reduce the Real Effective Exchange Rate Fluctuation of the RMB?-Empirical Research Based on Provincial Trade and Price Level Data

本文首先采用Redux模型研究发现,贸易开放在不同冲击下均能抑制实际汇率波动;然后研究各省(自治区、直辖市)贸易开放总量指标与细化指标对人民币实际有效汇率波动的影响;最后分析产业结构升级与“一带一路”倡议对人民币实际有效汇率波动的作用。研究发现:第一,贸易开放,特别是资本密集型产品贸易开放,能够减少人民币实际有效汇率波动。第二,产业结构合理化与产业结构高度化均能增强贸易开放,特别是资本密集型产品贸易开放,对人民币实际有效汇率波动产生抑制作用。第三,“一带一路”倡议加剧了人民币实际有效汇率波动,原因可能是随着“一带一路”倡议的推进,中国在加大与沿线国家初级产品贸易的同时减少了与沿线国家资本密集型产品贸易。因此,各省(自治区、直辖市)应加大高端产业研发投入,增强科技创新力度,推进产业结构高度化的同时注重产业结构合理化,借助“一带一路”倡议的契机,通过资本密集型产品贸易开放减少人民币实际有效汇率波动。

Trade has always been an important focus to promote China's economic growth.Against the background of the intensified fluctuation of exchange rate of RMB and the decrease of the proportion of trade,it is of great practical significance to study the impact of trade openness on the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate,to further clarify the subsequent development direction of trade,so as to prevent the exchange rate risk,maintain the stability of RMB exchange rate and promote the stable development of China's economy.Based on the Redux model,this paper first finds that trade openness can suppress the fluctuation of the real effective exchange rate under different shocks.Then this paper constructs the inter-provincial real effective exchange rate fluctuations of RMB,and studies the impact of the total indicators and refined indicators of trade openness of each province on the real effective exchange rate fluctuations of RMB.Finally,this paper analyzes the impact of industrial structure transformation and upgrading and the“Belt and Road”initiative on the real effective exchange rate fluctuation of the RMB.The study finds that,Firstly,Trade openness,especially capital-intensive products,can reduce the real effective exchange rate fluctuation of the RMB.Secondly,both the rationalization and the advancement of the industrial structure can enhance the restraint effect of trade openness,especially cap-intensive products,on the fluctuation of the real effective exchange rate of the RMB.Thirdly,the“Belt and Road”initiative exacerbates fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate of the RMB,which may be because after the“Belt and Road”initiative,China increases trade of raw products and reduces the trade of capital-intensive products with the“Belt and Road”countries.In short,the provinces should increase the investment in high-end industries,improve scientific and technological innovation,advance and rationalize the industrial structure,actively participate in the“Belt and Road”initiative,increase the trade of cap-intensive products to reduce the fluctuations of real effective exchange rate of RMB.