体育旅游产业发展与旅游经济增长系统运行的稳定性分析

Stability Analysis on the System of Sports Tourism Industry Development and Tourism Economic Growth Operation

体育旅游产业作为旅游业与体育产业融合发展的新型业态,成为我国旅游经济发展的重要动力。对体育旅游产业系统、科学、全面的认识,将更好地引导、促进体育旅游产业可持续健康发展,进而带动我国旅游经济的增长。文章首先针对体育旅游产业发展与旅游经济增长的关系建立了一个三维非线性内生增长模型;其次利用非线性动力学理论对模型进行了稳定性分析、Hopf分岔的存在性分析、Hopf分岔所产生极限环的稳定性分析;最后对所构建的模型进行了数值仿真。通过对模型进行深入分析得到了适度的旅游产业发展对整体旅游经济的增长起积极正向的作用,因此不可盲目开发,过度发展;不同的体育旅游发展规模应有相对应的市场调节方式、方法与之匹配,以保证体育旅游产业的健康稳定发展。此研究成果将对我国体育旅游产业的发展有重要的理论意义和较大的实用价值。

The sports tourism industry,as a new type of business that integrates the development of tourism and sports industry,has become an important driving force for the development of China’s tourism economy.The systematic,scientific and comprehensive understanding of the sports tourism industry will better guide and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the sports tourism industry,thus driving the growth of China’s tourism economy.In this paper,a three-dimensional nonlinear endogenous growth model is established based on the relationship between the development of sports tourism industry and the growth of tourism economy;secondly,the stability analysis of the model,the existence analysis of Hopf bifurcation and the stability analysis of the limit cycle generated by Hopf bifurcation are carried out by using the nonlinear dynamics theory;finally,the model is simulated numerically.Through an in-depth analysis of the model,this paper finds that the moderate development of the tourism industry plays a positive role in the growth of the overall tourism economy,so it is not necessary to blindly develop and over-develop;in order to ensure the healthy and stable development of sports tourism industry,different development scales of sports tourism should be matched with corresponding market adjustment methods.The research results of this paper have important theoretical significance and great practical value for the development of China’s sports tourism industry.