辽金时期西辽河流域旱涝序列重建与特征分析

Reconstruction and characteristic analysis of drought and flood series in the Xiliao River Valley during the Liao_Jin periods

文中基于历史文献和旱涝等级法,重建了辽金时期(907~1234年)西辽河流域旱涝序列,并利用多种气候统计方法分析其变化特征。结果表明:辽金时期西辽河流域旱灾次数多于涝灾,气候相对偏旱;经滑动t-检验法判定,重建序列在1126~1135年区间发生由湿变干的突变,累积距平分析也证实了这次气候转型事件,辽金易代可能与此次气候转型事件有关;小波分析和功率谱分析显示旱涝序列有72.89a和2~6a的显著周期,72.89a为第一显著周期;文中重建序列与其他代用指标序列具有较高的一致性。

Based on the historical records and the method of drought and flood grades, the drought and flood grades of the Xiliao River Valley in the Liao_Jin periods(907-1234) were reconstructed, and the characteristics of the sequence of drought and flood were analyzed by using a variety of climate statistical methods. The results show that the Xiliao River Valley experienced more droughts than floods and relatively dry climate in the Liao_Jin periods. According to the sliding t-test, the reconstruction sequence changed from wet to dry in 1126-1135, and the cumulative anomaly analysis also confirmed the event. The replacement of Liao by Jin might be related to the climate transition. Wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis showed that the drought and flood sequence had 72.89 a and 2-6 a significant periods, of which, the 72.89 a was the first significant period. The reconstruction sequence in this paper has high consistency with other surrogate index sequences.