基于中介效应模型的中美贸易对中国就业的影响——来自中国对美国制造业进出口的经验证据

The Effect of Sino-Us Trade on Chinese Employment based on Mediating Effect Model: the Empirical Evidence from China's Manufacturing Imports and Exports to the US

利用2001-2018年中国对美国制造业进出口面板数据,建立中介效应模型对中美贸易对中国就业的影响进行实证分析,研究表明:制造业出口显著提高了中国制造业就业水平,制造业出口通过扩大行业规模、提高出口导向率和降低进口渗透率间接促进就业增长;制造业进口显著抑制了就业增长,制造业进口通过扩大行业规模间接促进了就业增长,通过降低出口导向率和提高进口渗透率间接抑制了就业增长。

Based on the panel data of China's import and export of manufacturing industry to the United States from 2001 to 2018,the study establishes the mediating effect model to empirically analyze the impact of Sino US trade on China's employment.The results show that:the manufacturing export significantly improves the employment level of China's manufacturing industry,the manufacturing export indirectly promotes the employment growth by expanding the industry scale,increasing the export oriented rate and reducing the import penetration rate,the manufacturing import significantly inhibits employment growth,the manufacturing import indirectly promote employment growth through expanding the industry scale and indirectly inhibit employment growth by reducing export-oriented rate and increasing import penetration rate.