人口变动视角下中国粮食安全问题研究

Research on China’s Food Security fromthe Perspective of Population Changes

粮食安全始终是关系国计民生的重要议题。作为一切生产关系和社会行为的承担者,人口在粮食安全议题上的地位和作用不言而喻。粮食安全需要从生产、消费、生物、社会、政治和文化等若干方面考虑人口变量的影响。中国人口变动带来的粮食供应风险不断增加,农业人口非农化、农村人口城镇化、留守人口非主力化(女性化-老龄化-儿童化)背景下粮食生产人口结构性短缺风险逐步凸显,新时期的人地关系决定了人粮矛盾将以“农业生产人口衰退-消费需求扩张升级-粮食供需面临紧平衡”形式长期存在。我国中长期粮食安全的实现,有赖于农业科技进步状态下人地协调、人粮平衡的适度城镇化建设,以此缩小国民收入差距、平衡国内国际两个市场粮食供求以及减少粮食浪费。

Food security has always been an important issue related to national economy and people s livelihood.As the undertaker of all production relations and social behaviors,the status and role of population in food security is self-evident.As far as food security is concerned,the impact of demographic variables,like production,consumption,biology,society,politics and culture,has to be taken into consideration.The risks of grain supply brought by population changes in China are increasing,and the risk of structural shortage of grain production population is gradually increased under the background of non-agriculturization of agricultural population,urbanization of rural population,and non main-streaming of the left-behind population(feminization,aging and children).The relationship between man and land in the new period determines that the contradiction between man and grain will exist for a long time in the form of decline of agricultural production population-expansion and upgrading of consumption“ demand-tight balance of food supply and demand”.To realize China’s medium and long-term food security depends on the moderate urbanization construction of human-land coordination and human-food balance with agriculture science and technology progress,thus increasing grain production capacity,balancing grain supply and demand in domestic and international markets,and reducing grain waste.