长江经济带沿线城市绿色发展水平时空演变特征

Spatial-temporal Evolution of Urban Green Development Level Along the Yangtze River Economic Belt

绿色发展是长江经济带沿线城市在坚持生态保护的前提下实现经济发展与环境改善的关键。文章通过运用包含非期望产出的方向距离函数、Malmquist指数模型、泰尔指数、全局莫兰指数、Gets-Ord G*i指数等方法,探索2005—2017年长江经济带沿线108个地级以上城市绿色发展水平的时空演变特征,基于面板Tobit模型考察长江经济带沿线城市绿色发展水平的影响因素,研究表明:长江经济带沿线城市绿色发展水平在时序上呈现出“M”形的上升路径,绿色发展水平从0.858提升至0.876,且大多数城市绿色发展动态水平的提升依靠技术驱动或者技术和效率的“双重驱动”;长江经济带沿线城市的绿色发展水平呈现出“两头高、中间低”的空间格局,绿色发展水平相近的城市表现出“大连片、小散落”的集聚态势,且近年来集聚态势不断增强;长江经济带沿线城市绿色发展水平存在明显差异,上海、苏州、无锡、常德、自贡、资阳等城市绿色发展水平较高,而保山、淮北、思茅、十堰、淮南等城市绿色发展水平较低,而区域内差异是总体差异的主要来源。

Green development is the key to economic development and environmental improvement of cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt on the premise of adhering to ecological protection.This paper explores the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the green development level of 108 cities above prefecture level along the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2005 to 2017 by using DDF-Malmquist model,Theil index,Moran index,and Gets-Ord G~*_i index,etc,and based on the panel Tobit model,this paper investigates the influencing factors of green development level of cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The results show that the green development level of cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt presents an "M" shaped upward path in time sequence,and the green development level increases from 0.858 to 0.876,and most cities’ green development dynamic level depends on the technology drive or the "dual drive" of technology and efficiency;the green development level of cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt presents a spatial pattern of "high at both ends and low in the middle",and cities with similar green development level show a clustering trend of "large settlement,small scattered",and the agglomeration trend has been increasing in recent years;there are obvious differences in the green development level of cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Shanghai,Suzhou,Wuxi,Changde,Zigong,Ziyang and other cities have a higher level of green development,while Baoshan,Huaibei,Simao,Shiyan,Huainan and other cities have a low level of green development,and regional differences are the main source of the overall differences.