台风灾害对农业影响的风险分析——以阳江市为例

Risk Analysis on the Impact of Typhoon Disaster to Agriculture—A Case Study of Yangjiang City

【目的】通过研究超级台风“山竹”对阳江市农业影响的风险分析,定量识别灾害对农业影响的重要驱动因子,为预防台风灾害和灾后重建工作提供参考。【方法】在GIS技术支持下,采用自然灾害风险指数法和加权综合评价法,建立台风与农业生产相关的敏感性、暴露性和抗灾能力的综合风险评价模型,完成台风灾害对农业影响的风险区划;基于地理探测器方法定量识别台风灾害对区域农业影响的重要驱动因子。【结果】阳江市台风灾害农业最高风险区、较高风险区和中等风险区的面积分别占研究区农业生产面积的0.52%、0.06%和13.55%,较低风险和最低风险共占85.87%;敏感性、暴露性、抗灾能力3个驱动因子对灾害风险指数的影响q值依次为0.12、0.04、0.07,敏感性因子和抗灾能力因子共同作用时对灾害风险指数的影响为0.24。【结论】台风灾害对农业影响风险等级由沿海向内陆逐渐减小,且风险指数与地形关系密切,沿海及地势平坦的种植业区和渔业区风险指数较高,北部山林的风险指数相对较低;敏感性、抗灾能力、暴露性3个因子对风险指数的影响依次减弱,不同驱动因子对风险指数的影响程度及空间特征存在显著差异,驱动因子两两共同作用时会使风险指数增大。

【Objective】The research is to analyze the risk of the impact of super typhoon“Mangkhut”on the agriculture of Yangjiang City.Specifically,the important factors of typhoon disasters influencing the agriculture were quantitatively identified to provide references for the prevention of typhoon disasters and the work of post-disaster reconstruction.【Method】With the support of GIS,the natural disaster risk index and the weighted comprehensive evaluation method are used to establish a comprehensive risk assessment model for the impact of typhoon on agricultural production to carry out typhoon risk zoning.The model covers sensitivity,exposure and disaster resistance.In addition,the important driving factors of the impact of typhoon disasters on regional agriculture were quantitatively identified based on the geographic detector method.【Result】The areas of the highest agricultural risk area,higher risk area and medium risk area of typhoon disaster in Yangjiang City account for 0.52%,0.06%,and 13.5%of the area of agricultural production in the study area,respectively.Totally,the areas of lower risk area and the lowest risk area account for 85.87%of the area of agricultural production.The q value of the influence of the three driving factors of sensitivity,exposure,and disaster resistance on the disaster risk index is 0.12,0.04,and 0.07,respectively.The q value of the combined effect of sensitivity factor and disaster resilience factor on disaster risk index is 0.24.【Conclusion】The typhoon disaster risk level decreases gradually from the coast to the inland,and is closely related to the terrain.The risk index of flat cropping and fishing areas along the coast and hinterland is high and that of the northern forests is relatively lower.The sensitivity has the greatest influence on the risk index,followed by disaster and exposure.There are significant differences in the degree of influence and spatial characteristics of different driving factors on the risk index,and the combination of every two driving factors will increase the risk index.