基于成本效益重要度的复杂系统可靠性保障策略

Reliability Guarantee Strategy for Complex System Based on Cost-Benefit Importance

为了保障复杂系统的长期稳定经济运行,对系统运行过程和需要解决的问题进行了描述,构建了系统可靠性模型和组件更换优化模型,采用边际效应思想和重要度理论,提出了一种基于成本效益重要度的复杂系统可靠性保障策略,旨在寻求以系统可靠度下限阈值和运行时长为约束、以维护成本最小为目标的组件预防更换序列。当系统可靠度下降到预设阈值时,计算系统各组件的成本效益重要度,选择成本效益重要度最大的组件进行更换,如此进行迭代,直到完成运行任务,形成最优的组件更换序列。以可等效为串并联系统的复杂系统为例验证了该策略的可行性。该策略对保障一些高端装备安全关键系统的可靠运行具有一定的参考意义。

In order to ensure the long-term stable and economic operation of complex system,the system operation process is described and the problems is solved,and a system reliability model and an optimization model for component replacement are constructed.Based on the theory of marginal utility and importance measures,a reliability guarantee strategy for complex system based on cost-benefit importance is presented,which aims to find a component preventive replacement sequence with minimum maintenance cost on the constraints of system reliability lower threshold and running time.When the system reliability drops to a preset threshold,the cost-benefit importance of each component is calculated,the component with the greatest cost-benefit importance to replace is selected,and then iterate until the operation task is completed to form an optimal component replacement sequence.The feasibility of the present strategy is verified by taking a complex system which can be equivalent to a series-parallel system as an example.The present strategy has certain reference significance of ensuring the reliable operation of some high-end equipment safety-critical systems.