人穷志短:农村贫困与志向失灵——基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据

Rural Poverty and Aspirations Failure——Based on CFPS Data

志向水平是农村居民脱贫致富的关键内因。然而,关于贫困与志向失灵的因果关系始终未得到微观数据验证。本文从理论上分析了贫困对农村居民志向失灵的影响路径,采用有序probit模型,引入工具变量法解决内生性问题,使用CFPS微观数据实证检验贫困对农村居民志向水平的影响,并进行详细的边际效应分析。研究发现,无论收入贫困还是支出贫困,均对农村居民志向水平有显著的负向影响,且支出贫困的边际效应更高。因此,扶贫项目要兼顾对贫困群体内因和外因的改善,加大对支出型贫困群体的关注和帮扶,并将心理变量纳入扶贫项目的成效考核中,提高脱贫质量,实现贫困群体的持续稳定脱贫。

The aspirations level is the key internal cause of rural residents’poverty alleviation.However,the causal relationship between poverty and ambition failure hasn’t been verified by microdata.This paper theoretically analyzes the path of poverty to rural residents’aspirations failure,as well as adopts an ordered probit model and uses CFPS microdata to empirically test the impact of poverty on rural residents’aspirations level with detailed marginal effect analysis.The results show that both income poverty and expenditure poverty have a significant negative impact on the ambition level of rural residents and the marginal effect of expenditure poverty is relatively higher.Therefore,poverty alleviation projects should take into account the improvement of internal and external causes of poverty-stricken groups.We should increase the attention and assistance to the expenditure-oriented poverty-stricken groups,and incorporate psychological variables into the effectiveness evaluation of poverty alleviation projects to improve the quality of poverty alleviation,and achieve sustainable and stable poverty alleviation of the poor groups.