考虑碳价下限的燃煤发电碳减排投资及其政策分析

Carbon Emission Reduction Investment for Coal-fired Power Plants and Policy Analysis Considering Carbon Price Floor

燃煤发电是电力供应保障的重要基础,也是二氧化碳排放的主要来源之一。论文针对碳排放权价格(碳价)、燃煤发电商上网电量以及碳减排设施的单位运维成本都随机波动的情况,构建考虑碳价下限的燃煤发电商碳减排投资实物期权模型,在模型求解基础上,针对某60万千瓦燃煤发电机组,通过数值仿真方法,考察碳价下限对碳减排预期投资时间的影响,并探讨碳价初值、碳减排单位运维成本初值如何影响碳价下限政策的有效性,比较碳价下限与直接投资补贴政策的优劣,分析结果表明:(1)碳价下限政策可能会激励燃煤发电商提早进行碳减排投资,但提高碳价下限不一定能降低碳减排投资阈值;(2)碳价下限政策实施的有效区域由碳价初值、碳减排单位运维成本初值等参数有关,在该有效区域内,通过碳价下限的调整可调节碳减排投资的预期时间;(3)相对于直接投资补贴政策,碳价下限能显著节省补贴资金。

Reducing carbon dioxide emissions is a national macro goal.To achieve this goal,carbon emission reduction of coal-fired power generation is considered to be crucial.Although the proportion of renewable energy generation is increasing,coal-fired power generation is still the main source and an important guarantee of electricity supply.Therefore,encouraging coal-fired power plants to invest in carbon emission reduction and reducing carbon emissions per unit power generation may be one of the feasible ways to achieve carbon emission reduction target and guarantee sufficient electricity supply.Three Geometric Brownian motions are employed to characterize respectively the random fluctuation of carbon emission right price(carbon price),on grid power of coal-fired power plants and unit operation and maintenance cost of carbon emission reduction facilities,and a real option model of carbon emission reduction investment for coal-fired power plants considering carbon price floor is proposed in this paper.Based on the solution of the model,for a 600,000 kW coal-fired power unit,the effect of carbon price floor on the expected investment timing of carbon emission reduction is investigated applied with the numerical simulation whose parameter values come from references or technical data of the generator.Then the effect of the initial carbon price and the initial per unit operation and maintenance costs on incentive carbon price floor are discussed,whose result reveal the valid region of carbon price floor support scheme,and the advantages and disadvantages of carbon price floor support scheme with direct investment subsidies policy is compared.The analysis results indicate that,(1)whether carbon price floor can motivate coal-fired power plants to make carbon emission reduction investment is related to the initial carbon price and the initial per unit carbon emission reduction costs.When the initial prices are within the valid region,the expected investment timing can be induced by adjusting carbon price floor.When the initial prices are above the supremum of the valid region,coal-fired power plants will make a carbon emission reduction investment even if there is no carbon price floor support scheme.However,they will not invest within a predetermined timing when the initial prices are below the infimum of the valid region.(2)Compared with direct investment subsidies policy,carbon price floor support scheme can significantly save subsidies funds.Moreover,the combination of direct investment subsidies and tax exemptions can not only save subsidies funds,but also provide more incentives for coal-fired power plants to invest in carbon emission reduction.