2000年来中国边境城市对外贸易位序-规模分布及其影响因素

The rank-size distribution and influencing factors of foreign trade in China’s border from 2000 to 2017

全球化背景下对外贸易活动是特定地域外向联系强度的重要表现,是边境城市区域功能的重要组成部分。运用位序-规模法则、分形理论及核密度等方法,以中国边境各城市的进出口贸易额为主要指标,剖析了中国边境地区对外贸易的规模分布特征及其影响因素。结果发现:①不同阶段的中国边境对外贸易位序-规模特征明显,位序结构内部城市次序变化较大;②位序-规模分布的无标度区变化显著,在18年内出现了4段分形表现,外贸活动的规模波动性、区域化特征明显;③影响因素表现为经济地理禀赋约束下核心城市支配效应明显、邻接地缘环境影响显著、政策导向与口岸推动、内部竞争反推空间结构协调演化四个方面;④不平衡性、集聚性在中国边境地区外贸活动中凸显,空间分布呈现为"核心-边缘"结构,当前国家层级应重点支持对外贸易优势城市,省级尺度协调域内城市对外贸易层次组织与区间联系。

In the context of globalization,foreign trade activities are important manifestation of the strength of outward linkages in specific regions.Using the rank-size distribution,fractal theory and kernel density method,the paper analyzes the scale distribution characteristics and influencing factors of foreign trade in China’s border areas with the import and export trade volume of China’s border cities as the main indicators.The results show:1)The foreign trade rank-size distribution characteristics of the Chinese borders at different stages are obvious,but the order of the cities within the order structure is extremely different.2)There is a significant change in the non-scale areas of the rank-size distribution.In the 18 years,there are four segments of fractal performance,the scale fluctuation and regionalization of foreign trade activities are obvious.3)The influencing factors include:a)characterized by the obvious dominance effect of large cities under the constraints of economic geography,b)adjacent geoenvironment has significant influence,c)Policy orientation and port promotion,d)internal competition forced the spatial structure to coordinate evolution.4)Unbalance and agglomeration are highlighted in foreign trade activities in China’s border areas,and spatial distribution appears as a"core-edge"structure.At present,the national level should focus on supporting foreign trade superior cities,and the provincial-level coordination of urban foreign trade level organization and interval linkage.