2010-2018年德宏州HIV新近感染者的时空特征分析

A spatial analysis on HIV recent infection in Dehong prefecture from 2010 to 2018

目的对德宏州2010-2018年艾滋病病毒(HIV)新近感染者的时空分布特征进行分析。方法对新近HIV感染者基本情况进行统计学描述,使用地理信息系统(ArcGIS)10.2软件进行新近感染者病例的空间描述,利用全局空间自相关统计量(Moran‘s I)及局部热点分析指数(Getis-Ord Gi*)进行空间聚集性分析。结果2010-2018年德宏州本地共发现387例HIV新近感染者,<45岁、农民、已婚或同居分别占68.0%,72.1%,48.8%。2018年新近感染者在全州的覆盖率为56.0%(61例);新近感染比例在空间上表现为上升趋势(t=4.53,P<0.05);新近感染者在全州的分布历年均无全局空间自相关性,局部热点区域主要有芒市镇、勐秀乡、畹町镇和景罕镇等。结论德宏州2010-2018年HIV新近感染者例数基本保持稳定,未表现出全局空间关联,但应关注芒市镇、勐秀乡、畹町镇、景罕镇等热点区域。

Objective To elucidate the spatial and temporal distribution of newly infected HIV patients in Dehong prefecture,from 2010 to 2018.Methods SAS 9.4 software was used for the general descriptive analysis.ArcGIS 10.2 software was used for the spatial description of newly infected HIV patients and the proportion of newly infections.Global spatial autocorrelation statistics(Moran’s I)and local spatial autocorrelation statistics(getis-ord Gi*)were used for spatial aggregation analysis.Results A total of 387 newly infected HIV patients were detected in Dehong from 2010 to 2018,which was mainly under 45 years old,with farmers,the married or cohabiting(85.5%,72.1%,48.8%).In terms of spatial-temporal distribution,the coverage proportion and the number of newly infected patients were at the highest level(52%,n=61),indicating the expansion of detection and monitoring system.Besides,the proportion of new infections showed an upward trend(t=4.53,P<0.05).The distribution of new infections in the area over the years had no global spatial heterogeneity,with the towns like Mangshi,Mengxiu,Wanding and Jinghan highlighted on the basis of local spatial analysis.Conclusion The number of new HIV infections in Dehong remains stable while the proportion shows an upward trend from 2010 to 2018.Although there is no global spatial autocorrelation in the new HIV infections,the local results imply the necessity to strengthen HIV prevention and control in the areas such as Mangshi,Mengxiu,Wanding and Jinghan.