基于故障率和维修费用的可修复备件消耗预测模型

Prediction Models of Repairable Spare Parts Consumption Based on Failure Rate and Maintenance Cost

考虑了可修复单元“修复如新”、“修复如旧”和“不完全维修”三种维修效果,将单元的故障率和维修费用作为约束条件,运用可靠性理论及随机过程方法,在计算备件不同使用阶段平均使用时间的基础上,建立了可修复备件消耗预测模型.最后,通过示例论证了模型的有效性、可行性.该预测方法为装备保障部门确定合理的可修复备件筹措、储存和供应数量提供了理论依据,且具有重要的指导作用.

Considering the repaired“as good as new”,repaired as old and imperfect maintenance of partially repairable spare parts and choosing the failure rate and maintenance cost as the constraint condition,this paper established forecasting models of repairable spares parts consumption based on calculating the average usage time under different usage stages of spares parts,applying the equipment reliability theory and stochastic process method.At last,an example was taken to illustrate the applicability of these models.These models provide sufficient scientific basis for ensuring repairable spare parts application,storage and supply amount reasonably,and have the vital important guiding significance.