“一带一路”沿线国家要素禀赋对中国对外直接投资的影响

The Impact of National Factor Endowment of Countries Along "the Belt and Road" on China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment

"一带一路"沿线国家要素禀赋差异明显。测度2003—2017年"一带一路"沿线51个国家的劳动力要素、资本要素、技术要素和自然资源要素,构建要素禀赋指数反映各国要素禀赋整体状况,计算各国的资本劳动比、技术劳动比及自然资源劳动比,并根据要素充裕度将51个国家分为7种类型:资本技术资源充裕型、资本技术充裕资源稀缺型、资本资源充裕技术稀缺型、资本充裕技术资源稀缺型、技术充裕资本资源稀缺型、资源充裕资本技术稀缺型和资本技术资源稀缺型,最后运用系统GMM模型分析各国要素禀赋差异对中国对外直接投资(OFDI)的影响。研究结果表明:(1)"一带一路"沿线国家要素禀赋差异影响着中国的对外直接投资;(2)"一带一路"倡议下技术要素对中国OFDI及沿线国家发展影响最大;(3)"一带一路"沿线不同地区的要素禀赋优势不同,其中东南亚地区劳动力要素明显、蒙俄和南亚地区技术要素和资源要素明显、南西亚地区资本要素明显、中东欧与中亚地区资源要素明显。

The factor endowments of countries along "the Belt and Road"(B&R) are significantly different. This paper measures the labor, capital, technology, and natural resource factors of 51 countries along B&R from 2003 to 2017, constructs an index of factor endowment to reflect the overall state of factor endowment in each country, and then calculates the capital labor ratio, technical labor ratio and natural resource labor ratio of each country, thus divides 51 countries into seven types according to the factor sufficiency, they are capital technology resources abundance type, capital technology abundance resources scarcity type, capital resources abundance technology scarcity type, capital abundance technology resources scarcity type, technology abundance capital resource scarcity type, resource abundance capital technology scarcity type, and capital technology resource scarcity type. Finally, the paper uses a dynamic GMM model to analyze the impact of factor endowment differences in countries along B&R on China’s OFDI. The results show that:(1)The difference in factor endowment of countries along B&R affects China’s foreign direct investment.(2)Under the Belt and Road initiative, technical factors have the greatest impact on the development of OFDI and the countries along B&R.(3)The factor endowment advantage of different areas along B&R is different. Among them, the labor factors in Southeast Asia are obvious;the technical factors and resource elements in Mongolia, Russia and South Asia are obvious;capital factors in South West Asia are obvious;resource factors in Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia are obvious.