最终需求变动对中国增加值率的影响

Impact of Final Demand Change on China’s Value-added Rate

文章利用非竞争型投入产出模型,基于最终需求角度对1997-2017年中国增加值率变化进行分析。结果显示,国民经济对消费需求依存度减弱,而对投资和出口需求依存度增加,抑制了中国总体增加值率的提升。由三驾马车驱动的经济增加值率的同时下降,导致了中国总体增加值率的进一步降低,而由投资需求诱发的增加值率的下降对总体增加值率造成了最不利的影响。投资需求驱动的经济增长主要在增加值率较低的第二产业,随着经济结构调整与创新驱动战略的推进,以及投资方向与投资结构的转型优化,投资需求诱发增加值率逐渐得到改善,将会极大地促进增加值率的提升。

This paper uses a non-competitive input-output model to analyze the changes in China’s value-added rate from1997 to 2017 from the perspective of final demand.The results are shown as follows:The dependence of the national economy on consumer demand has weakened,while the dependence on investment and export demand has strengthened,which inhibits the rise of China’s overall value-added rate.The simultaneous decline in the economic value-added rate driven by troika has led to a further decline in China’s overall value-added rate,and the decline in value-added rate induced by investment demand has the most adverse impact on the overall value-added rate.The economic growth driven by investment demand lies mainly in the secondary industry with a low value-added rate.With the advancement of economic restructuring,innovation-driven strategies,and the transformation and optimization of investment direction and structure,the value-added rate induced by investment demand is gradually improving,which will greatly promote the increase of value-added rate.