地方政府债务绩效与债务风险的实证研究

An Empirical Research on Local Government Debt Performance and Debt Risk

防范化解地方政府债务风险是打赢防控重大风险攻坚战的重要方面,但从债务绩效角度防控债务风险的研究尚缺乏足够重视。本文在构建债务绩效评价指标体系和深入分析债务绩效影响债务风险的内在机理基础上,以2010-2016年25个省区数据为样本,运用固定效应模型和门槛回归模型,实证研究地方政府债务绩效影响债务风险的实际效果。研究发现,无论是总体债务绩效还是细分的债务绩效均具有降低债务风险的作用;但考虑纵向财政关系时发现,在纵向财政缺口较大时,仅通过提高债务绩效并不能控制债务风险。根据实证结论认为,发挥债务绩效降低债务风险的作用,不能局限在债务绩效本身,需要将债务绩效管理与政府间财政关系和官员政绩考核等体制机制改革协同。

To prevent the risk of local government debt is an important aspect of winning the battle against major risks.However,the research on the prevention and control of debt risk from the perspective of debt performance has not been paid enough attention.Based on the construction of the debt performance evaluation index system and the in-depth analysis of the internal mechanism of debt performance influencing debt risk,this paper took the data of 25 provinces and regions from 2010 to 2016 as samples,and applied the fixed-effect model and threshold regression model to empirically study the actual effect of local government debt performance influencing debt risk.It is found that both the overall debt performance and the subdivided debt performance can reduce the debt risk.However,when considering the vertical fiscal relationship,it is found that when the vertical fiscal gap is large,the debt risk cannot be controlled only by improving the debt performance.According to the empirical conclusion,this paper holds that the role of debt performance in reducing debt risk should not be limited to debt performance itself,but should be coordinated with the reform of the system and mechanism such as the inter-governmental financial relationship and official performance appraisal.