高速公路交通事故风险的全面分析

Analysis on the traffic accident risk of Highway

为保证驾驶人与乘员的人身安全,提升高速公路的安全性,对事故发生的机理进行深入分析是极其必要的。交通事故风险与航空航天业风险有类似之处,通过借鉴航空航天业风险分析管控经验,从概率角度,对历史案例进行全面分析,提出综合管控措施。结论,高速公路中的交通事故是一个低概率事件,需要认识到事故风险是不确定的;应全面梳理事故成因,针对事故成因不同概率,根据概率的高低决定管控重点、资源投入,最终充分降低事故发生概率,进而减少人员伤亡。

In order to ensure the personal safety of drivers and passengers and improve the safety of the highway,it is necessary to analyze the mechanism of the accident.The risk of traffic accident is similar to that of aerospace industry.Based on the experience of risk analysis and control of aerospace industry,this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of historical cases from the perspective of probability and puts forward comprehensive control measures.Conclusion:the traffic accident in the expressway is a low probability event,so we need to realize that the accident risk is uncertain;we should comprehensively sort out the causes of the accident,according to the different probabilities of the causes of the accident,determine the key points of control and resource investment according to the probabilities,and finally fully reduce the probability of the accident,and then reduce the casualties.