基于M-K法和小波分析法的昭苏县四季降水变化特征分析

Analysis on seasonal precipitation changes in Zhaosu County based on M-K method and wavelet analysis method

选用昭苏县1955—2018年的逐月降水资料,利用线性倾向率法、M-K突变检验法及Morlet小波分析法对昭苏县64年四季降水量进行倾向、突变和周期特性分析。结果表明:(1)64年间春季、秋季和冬季降水呈增加趋势,夏季降水呈减少趋势。(2)64年间四季降水量呈现阶段性波动变化的特点,其中春季和夏季降水变化不显著无突变点,而秋季和冬季降水变化趋势呈显著增加趋势。(3)64年间夏、秋、冬三季降水量呈现5~6 a的周期性变化,春、夏、秋三季降水量呈现出10~13 a的周期性变化,春季降水量呈现25~26 a周期性变化,夏、秋两季降水量呈现33~34 a的周期性变化,冬季降水量呈现16~18 a周期性变化。

This paper selects the monthly precipitation data of Zhaosu County from 1955 to 2018,and uses linear trend analysis method,Mann-Kendall jump test method and Morlet wavelet analysis method to analyze the trend,abrupt changes and periodic characteristics of the county's 64-year precipitation.The results showed that:(1)The precipitation in spring,autumn and winter showed an increasing trend,and the precipitation in summer showed a decreasing trend during 64 years.(2)The precipitation of the four seasons in 64 years showed the characteristics of stage fluctuations.The precipitation changes in spring and summer were not significant and there were no mutation points,while the precipitation changes in autumn and winter showed a significant increasing trend.(3)During 64 years,the precipitation in the three seasons of summer,autumn and winter showed a periodic change of 5~6 years,the precipitation of the three seasons of spring,summer and autumn showed a periodic change of 10~13 years,and the precipitation in spring showed a periodic change of 25~26 years.The precipitation in summer and autumn presents a periodic change of 33~34 years,and the precipitation in winter presents a periodic change of 16~18 years.