FTA的价值链贸易效应--基于中新、中秘FTA的实证分析

Value chain trade effect of FTA(Free Trade Agreement):an empirical analysis based on China-New Zealand and China-Peru FTA

以中国-新西兰、中国-秘鲁FTA为研究对象,用合成控制法和双重差分法检验了两个FTA的价值链贸易效应,同时结合FTA协议内容和双边贸易结构对实证结果进行了原因分析。结论显示,中新FTA的签订和实施对我国中间品出口提升产生了显著的政策效应,对中间品进口和进口中国外增加值的促进作用则可能因关税结构、服务贸易开放承诺基本未超越GATS等问题不显著;中秘FTA对我国出口产生了显著的促进作用,而对进口则可能因投资替代、逆向贸易创造、时滞效应等产生了显著的抑制作用;FTA贸易提升变化率比较平稳且对经济危机等不确定性冲击有一定的缓冲作用。

Taking the FTA of China-New Zealand and China-Peru as the research objects,this paper examined the value chain trade effects of the two FTAs by using the Synthetic Control Method and the Differences-in-Differences Method.This paper also analyzes the reasons for the empirical results from the perspective of FTA content and bilateral trade structure.The conclusion shows that China-New Zealand FTA has a significant policy effect on the increase of China’s intermediate goods exports.On the other hand,the promotion of import is not significant due to the tariff structure and the commitment of service trade opening up have not surpassed GATS.China-Peru FTA has a significant effect on promoting China’s exports,while it has a significant inhibitory effect on imports due to investment substitution,reverse trade creation,and time lag effects.The growth rate of trade promotion is relatively stable and FTA has a certain buffering effect on uncertainties such as the economic crisis.