粤港澳大湾区跨境资本流动风险度量研究

Risk Measurement of Cross-Border Capital Flows in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

当前粤港澳大湾区已成为我国跨境资本流动最活跃、跨境联动最紧密的区域。在梳理粤港澳三地跨境资本流动现状和特征的基础上,从影响跨境资本流动的10个方面挑选代表性指标,分别构建了广东省、香港、澳门的跨境资本流动压力指数,分析其在2007—2020年的演变特征,并借助阈值法检验是否存在跨境资本流出或流入风险。研究结果表明,广东省在2007—2009年出现多次跨境资本流出和流入风险警示,近年来总体平稳;近十年香港跨境资本流动风险控制在一定的范围;近十年澳门跨境资本流动主要体现为流出风险,需要警惕流入风险。

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is deeply involved with active cross-border capital flows and intensive cross-border linkage.On the basis of analyzing the characteristics of cross-border capital flows in Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao,this paper selects ten aspects of representative indicators and constructs the crossborder capital flow pressure indices ranging from 2007 to 2020 using threshold method to test whether there are risks in cross-border capital outflows or inflows.Results show warning hints of cross-border capital outflows and inflows in Guangdong from 2007 to 2009,but are generally stable in recent years.In the past decade,risk of cross-border capital flows in Hong Kong has been well contained,while the situation in Macao reflects mainly outflow risk,with attentions to be called for inflows risk as well.