长江流域水库群风险防洪调度分析

Discussion on risk flood control operation of reservoir group in Changjiang River Basin

近年来随着经济社会的高速发展,水库防洪与水资源综合利用的矛盾凸显,如何在提高流域防洪安全保障能力的前提下,充分利用水资源是一个值得探讨的问题。根据多年水库调度实践经验,从水库汛限水位执行、汛期运行水位控制、常遇洪水调度及大洪水风险规避等方面,分析探讨了汛期水库防洪调度中水资源综合利用的问题,提出要重点注意水库汛期运行水位动态控制及开展汛末提前蓄水,建议在小概率防洪风险研究应用成果的基础上,进一步扎实推进降雨洪水预报、洪水地区组成和洪水特性分析等基础工作,构建面向“时-空-量”的多级防洪调度体系。

In recent years,with the rapid economic and social development,the contradiction between reservoir flood control and comprehensive utilization of water resources has become prominent.How to make full use of water resources under the premise of improving the safety and security of flood control in the basin is a problem worthy of discussion.Based on many years of reservoir operation practice,this paper analyzed and discussed the comprehensive utilization of water resources in flood control operation of reservoirs in flood season from the aspects of the implementation of limited water level in flood season,the control of operation water level in flood season,the operation of frequent floods and the risk avoidance of large floods.It was suggested that the dynamic control of reservoir operation water level in flood season and the advance water storage at the end of the flood season should be paid more attention.Based on the research and application results of small probability flood control risk,the basic work of rainfall flood forecasting,flood area composition and flood characteristics analysis should be further promoted,and the multi-level flood control operation system oriented to"time-space-quantity"should be constructed.