无失效数据下计算装置贮存寿命评估方法

Evaluation method for storage life of computing devices under zero-failure data

针对信息化弹药部组件贮存寿命难以评估的问题,提出了一种融合自然贮存试验数据与加速试验无失效数据的部组件贮存寿命评估方法。首先,根据部组件的自然贮存试验数据,通过保序回归解决数据中的倒挂问题,采用极小卡方估计法和拟合优度检验初步确定部组件的寿命分布函数。接着,通过最优置信限法,估计加速应力水平下的模型参数,并计算加速应力水平与常规应力水平间的加速因子,将加速试验中的无失效数据折算为常规应力水平下的定时截尾数据,单独依据该数据重新评估模型参数。而后,融合折算数据和原始自然贮存数据,再次评估部组件的贮存可靠性,综合对比评估结果确定其分布函数。最后,以某计算装置为例,综合对比分析自然贮存试验数据、加速试验无失效数据和融合贮存试验数据的评估结果,确定了该计算装置的寿命分布函数和给定可靠度下的贮存寿命,证明了该方法的有效性,可以做工程应用推广。

Aiming at the problem that it is difficult to evaluate the storage life of informationized ammunition components,a component storage life evaluation method combining natural storage test data and accelerated test zero-failure data is proposed.Firstly,according to the natural storage test data of the component,the upside down problem in the data is solved by the isotonic regression,and the life distribution function of the component is initially determined by the minimum chi-square estimation method and the goodness of fit test.Then,through the optimal confidence limit method,the model parameters under the accelerated stress level are estimated,and the acceleration factor between the accelerated stress level and the conventional stress level is calculated,and the zero-failure data in the accelerated test is converted to the timing censored data under normal stress levels,and the model parameters are re-evaluated based on that data alone.Furthermore,the conversion data and the original natural storage data are combined,and the storage reliability of the components is evaluated again,and the evaluation results are comprehensively compared to determine the distribution function.Finally,taking a computing device as an example,comprehensively comparing and analyzing the evaluation results of natural storage test data,accelerated test no-failure data,and fusion storage test data,the life distribution function of the computing device and the storage life at a given reliability are determined.The effectiveness of this method is proved,which can be used to promote the engineering applications.