21世纪10年代日本军事战略的嬗变态势及动因分析

An Analysis of Japan's Military Strategy in the 2010s:Evolution and Motivation

2010年以来,日本《防卫计划大纲》已进行3次修订,其内容变化主要体现在以下几方面:突出强调所谓来自中国的威胁;防卫理念升级为“多维度综合防卫”;在延续“一体两翼”思路的基础上,战略布局兼顾陆海空传统空间和太空、网络、电磁波等新领域;愈发重视强化自卫队的能力等。一方面,这是为了实现其“政治大国”战略,并满足国内利益集团的诉求;另一方面,美国所施加的压力和全球安全环境的变化也迫使日本做出调整。在《防卫计划大纲》的指导下,日本采取了一系列举措,如迎合美国战略以“借船出海”、极力渲染“中国威胁论”、加强“2+2”合作机制、推动修宪进程以及同他国频繁进行军事活动等。因此,在肯定日本新版《防卫计划大纲》的随机应变性的同时,也应当警惕日本频繁修改《防卫计划大纲》背后的真实动机。

Since 2010,Japan's“National Defense Program Guidelines”has gone through three editions of amendment,and its main changes in contents can be reflected in the following aspects:emphasis on the threats from China;emphasis on multidimensional integrated defense upgrading from the defense concept;the strategic layout that combines traditional space including land,sea and air with new fields like space,cyberspace and electromagnetic waves based on the continuation of“one body and two wings”idea;more attention to strengthen the capabilities of Self-Defense Force.On the one hand,Japan's goal is to achieve its“political power”strategy and meet the demands of domestic interest groups.On the other hand,the pressure exerted by the United States and the changes in global security environment have also forced Japan to make some adjustments.Under the guidance of National Defense Program Guidelines,Japan has adopted a series of measures,such as developing military forces while catering to the US strategy,vigorously rendering the Chinese threat theory,strengthening the“2+2”cooperation mechanism,promoting the constitutional amendment process,and conducting military exercises with other countries frequently,etc.Therefore,while giving full affirmation to the adaptability of Japan's action,we should also be alert to the real motivation behind Japan's frequent revision of National Defense Program Guidelines.