基于投入产出模型的贵州省农业产业链稳定发展策略研究

Research on the Stable Development Strategy of Agricultural Industry Chain in Guizhou Province Based on Input-Output Model

贵州省农业资源条件丰富,但是经济发展水平较落后,农业资本存量低、服务体系不健全等问题突出,农业总产值未能体现当地丰富的资源条件.对贵州省农业及其产业链的研究对于促进当地农业发展和农户增收具有重要意义[1].本研究根据最新的2017投入产出表数据,结合感应度和影响力系数、区位商、产业关联以及最小生成树等理论来较为全面地论证贵州省农业的发展现状和产业链特征.分析结果显示:(1)贵州省农业的专业化程度较高,该产业有很大的优势和发展潜力;(2)农业的前向关联产业有化学产品制造业等产业,农副食品加工业与农业为双向关联关系,农业的后向关联产业有纺织业和食品制造业等产业,农业的内部关联也比较高;(3)农业与纺织业、食品制造业以及农副食品加工业为直接关联关系,与住宿餐饮业为间接关联关系.根据以上结论,提出相关建议.

Guizhou province is rich in agricultural resources,but the level of economic development is relatively backward,the agricultural capital stock is low,the service system is not perfect and other prominent problems,the total agricultural output value fails to reflect the local rich resources conditions.The research on the agriculture and its industrial chain in Guizhou province is of great significance for promoting the development of local agriculture and increasing the income of farmers.Based on the latest input-output table data in 2017,this study comprehensively demonstrated the development status and industrial chain characteristics of agriculture in Guizhou province by combining induction degree and coefficient of influence,location quotient,industrial association,minimum spanning tree and other theories.The analysis results show that:(1)The specialization degree of agriculture in guizhou province is relatively high,and the industry has great advantages and development potential;(2)The forward related industries of agriculture include chemical product manufacturing,agricultural and sideline food processing and agriculture.The backward related industries of agriculture include textile industry and food manufacturing industry,and the internal correlation of agriculture is also relatively high.(3)Agriculture is directly related to the textile industry,food manufacturing industry and agricultural and sideline food processing industry,while it is indirectly related to the accommodation catering industry.Based on the above conclusions,relevant suggestions are put forward.