错峰通勤对疾病传播的影响——以上海为例

Impact of Staggered Shifts on Disease Spread——The Example of Shanghai

为遏制疾病传播,错峰交通的政策被提出.本文旨在验证错峰通勤能否以及多大程度上能够发挥作用.以上海为例,基于手机数据反映人口实际通勤现状,用多代理人模拟方法模拟疾病的传播,考察不同错峰通勤策略的影响.研究发现:错峰通勤增强了人员流动性,反而会加快疾病的传播,错峰率越大,传播越快;早上班人群被感染的比例略低于晚上班人群;个人的通勤距离越长,家和工作地离市中心越近,越可能成为易感者和易播者.

Staggered-shifts policy was proposed to suppress the disease spread.This paper aims to quantify its effectiveness.Based on the current commuting conditions reflected by the mobile phone grid data in Shanghai,this paper uses a multi-agent simulation model to analyze the spread of disease and to compare the effects of different staggered-shifts strategies.It is found that the staggered shifts increase people's mobility,and accelerate the spread of disease.The disease spreads faster as the rates of the staggered shifts increase.Individuals who go to work earlier have slightly less possibilities to be infected than those who go to work later.Individuals who have longer commuting distances,and live and work closer to the city center,are more susceptible and infectious.