运输速度技术对未来客运业发展的影响研究

Impact Analysis of Transport Speed Technology on Passenger Transport

以技术提升促速度提高为背景,研究运输速度对客运业的影响.首先,系统回顾了历史上航空运输、铁路运输和公路运输速度的进步,以及助推速度提高的技术支撑;其次,以运输速度丰富内涵为切入点,从运输速度可靠性和快速性两个维度分别探讨了未来客运市场的基本特征;第三,在未来不同运输方式提速的背景下,明确各运输方式在不同客运市场的功能定位,并分别构建不同出行方式的效用函数和乘客广义出行成本函数,进一步运用演化博弈理论和Logit分担率模型研究未来速度提升对不同客运市场交通结构的影响.研究结果表明:首先,影响乘客方式选择的主要因素是全过程“门到门”速度,全过程“门到门”出行时间包含在车时间和节点时间.其次,不同运输方式速度提升,换乘效率提高和节点时间压缩均可能影响不同客运市场的交通结构;在短距离客运市场,压缩端点时间对交通结构影响更为显著;在中长距离客运市场,提升运输速度可以显著改变交通结构.设计速度250 km/h的高速铁路与民航竞争的临界距离不到800 km,但高铁设计时速提高到350 km/h时临界点可望推至1200 km.第三,在城市内,运输速度的可靠性对于通勤通学客流影响显著.第四,科技是速度提升的重要支撑,但也应关注技术实现背后的经济性和市场购买力.第五,研究与速度相关产品的差异化定价是助推企业提供高质量出行产品的关键.

Under the background of technology promotion to achieve speed improvement,the impact of speed on passenger transport is analyzed in this paper.Firstly,the speed improvement of railway transport,air transport and road transport in history and the associated technology promotion are reviewed systematically.Secondly,with the rich connotation of speed,the basic characteristics of the passenger transport market are investigated from the perspective of speed reliability and rapidity.Then,with the speed improvement in the future,the position of different transport modes is explicitly analyzed,and the utility function of different travel modes and passenger's generalized travel cost is put forward based on different transport markets,and the evolutionary game theory and the Logit model are utilized to analyze the impact of speed improvement on transport structure of different passenger transport market.Several points have been concluded as below.Firstly,the most important factor related to traveler's choice is the door to door time which comprises the in-vehicle time and the time spent at the origin,transfer and destination points.Secondly,the structure of the transport market can be changed by speed promotion of different travel modes,transfer efficiency,and time reduction at origin,transfer and destination points.For short-distance trips,shortening time at origin transfer and destination points would significantly influence transport structure;whereas for long-distance trips,speed promotion may have a greater impact on transport structure.The market boundary is less than 800 kilometers between the high-speed railway with a maximum speed of 250 km/h and the civil aviation,but the boundary may be changed to about 1200 kilometers for the high-speed railway with a maximum speed of 350 km/h.Thirdly,the reliability of speed has a significant impact on commuting passenger flow in urban areas.Fourthly,though science and technology are an important support to speed promotion,it is worthwhile to pay more attention to the economy and market purchasing power behind the realization of speed technologies.Finally,the research on the pricing of differentiated products related to speed is the key to promote transport operators to provide more efficient travel products.