新冠疫情对老年人公交出行行为的影响

Impact of COVID-19 on the Elderly's Bus Travel Behavior

新冠肺炎疫情对交通运输产生巨大影响,但现有成果主要研究疫情爆发期疫情对交通运输的影响,较少有分析后疫情阶段的出行行为.本文利用验证性因素分析模型及Logit模型,研究后疫情阶段新冠病毒,老年人个人统计学特征,老年人对新冠肺炎疫情严重程度的感知等心理因素对老年人出行行为的影响.研究结果表明:短距离出行中,新冠疫情和对新冠肺炎疫情严重程度的感知对出行方式选择没有显著影响;新冠疫情和对新冠肺炎疫情严重程度的感知对老年人使用公交意愿具有显著影响;此外,这两个因素也影响老年人外出概率和使用公交的概率.

COVID-19 has caused huge negative impacts on traffic and transportation.Existing research focused on the impact of COVID-19 on the traffic during the outbreak phase.There are still few studies related to the impact of COVID-19 on travel behavior during the post-epidemic phase.This paper analyzed the impact of COVID-19 during the post-epidemic phase,travelers'demographic characteristics,and perception of the COVID-19 severity on the elderly's travel behavior,with the confirmative factor analysis and Logit modeling.The results show that COVID-19 and perception of its severity have no significant impact on the elderly's short-distance trips.However,they have a significant impact on the elderly's willingness to travel by bus.Furthermore,these two factors have significant impacts on the elderly's trip frequency and bus trips.